Will Canadian visitors to the U.S. avoid crossing the border this summer? February-April traffic across the U.S-Canada port of entry in Roosville was down 22 percent compared to last year, according to Diane Medler of Discover Kalispell. Photo by Wbaron/CC
by Robert Chaney
The loonies may not be flying south for the summer.
Canadian tourists and their loon-logoed foreign dollars appear hesitant to cross the United States border as the Trump administration increases scrutiny on international visitors and visa applicants. The trend has already prompted one Montana tourism office to cancel its summer advertising spending in Canada.
The uncertainty comes as other augurs of summer recreation look relatively good. Winter-season business in Montana and Wyoming was strong. Montana’s Department of Commerce has a new state brand logo and plans to launch a wide-ranging tourism promotion in July.
While about half of Montana faces drought conditions, the south-central portion around the Greater Yellowstone reports normal moisture levels. Just over 40 percent of Wyoming is in drought status, concentrated in the southeast corner around Cheyenne. That has left Greater Yellowstone in the “normal” category for wildland fire potential all summer, while other parts of the Northwest go “above normal” in July and August.
Visitor statistics, on the other hand, show declining bookings and travel plans especially among international customers.
“It’s going to be a summer of unknowns,” said Rachel Shouse at the Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research at the University of Montana. “Anecdotally, I’ve noticed an uptick in comments from Canadian folks not super-happy with what’s happening right now in the U.S. Some businesses have seen canceled trips, people dropping rafting plans and weekend visits.”
While it's difficult to determine the number of Canadian tourists who visited Yellowstone National Park, in 2018 an estimated 92,000 Canadians and 149,000 Chinese visited the park in 2018. Currently, the park sees nearly 4.5 million visitors per year. Photo by Jacob W. Frank/NPS
Nevertheless, the U.S. International Trade Administration posts a rosy travel forecast.
“Total international arrivals will continue to increase solidly over the next three years and will surpass pre-pandemic 2019 visitation in 2026,” its website stated on Thursday. “According to the forecast, total international arrivals will increase 6.5% to 77.1 million in 2025, rise 10.2% to 85 million in 2026, and grow 6% to 90.1 million in 2027.”
That included a prediction that annual Canadian tourist numbers would climb from 20.2 million in 2024 to 20.7 million this year, and almost 26 million by 2029. Chinese visitors were forecast to jump from 1.6 million in 2024 to 2.2 million in 2025.
However, ITA also tracks international arrivals, which show declining trends for both Canadian and overseas travelers between 2024 and 2025. The share of Americans intending to vacation in the next six months fell from just over 50 percent at the start of 2024 to 40 percent at the start of 2025.
And other crosswinds are blowing. The research firm Oxford Economics predicts an 8.7 percent decline in international travelers arriving in the U.S. this year. It expected overall international visitor spending will drop by 4.7 percent, or $8.5 billion.
More specifically, Oxford Economics expects 2025 Canadian travel to fall by 20.2 percent, with a 35.2 percent decline already reported for the month of April for land travelers and 19.9 percent drop in air travelers. International air travel bookings between May and July are 10.8 percent below the same period in 2024.
Oxford Economics expects 2025 Canadian travel to fall by 20.2 percent, with a 35.2 percent decline already reported for the month of April for land travelers and 19.9 percent drop in air travelers.
On May 20, Discover Kalispell Executive Director Diane Medler announced her organization was canceling its Canadian advertising for the summer. February-April traffic across the U.S-Canada port of entry in Roosville is down 22 percent compared to last year, Medler told the Flathead Beacon, and February-March credit card spending was off 46 percent.
Those trends dissipate somewhat in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Yellowstone Country Executive Director Robin Hoover told Mountain Journal she recently polled a handful of hotel owners in the Bozeman area who said they have not seen declines in Canadian bookings for the summer.
“All things seem positive considering the climate we’re in now,” Hoover said. “We are waiting for the state Department of Commerce to decide what its future holds. They’ve had many inquiries: is the state going to take the lead helping with international marketing? They haven’t done any international marketing for some time now.”
Commerce Department Communications Director Mitch Staley said his office will start in-state marketing the new state logo next week, with national and international efforts expanding in July. The specific extent and cost of those efforts is still under development, he said.
Rapidly changing policies in Washington, D.C. also may affect the summer tourism business. For instance, the Trump administration announced a “pause” in scheduling visa interviews for international students on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio accelerated the policy, stating plans to “aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields. We will also revise visa criteria to enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications from the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong.”
That’s likely to crimp what had been a long upward trend in Chinese visitors coming to the U.S. A bilateral agreement in 2014 allowed short-term business and tourist visas to be extended from one year to 10, with multiple entries.
“I would assume there would be some fear and hesitancy if that crackdown actually happens,” Shouse said of the potential scrutiny of Chinese travelers. “The Asian market is a heavy group, particularly for visiting Yellowstone.”
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About Robert Chaney
Robert Chaney grew up in western Montana and has spent most of his journalism career writing about the Rocky Mountain West, its people, and their environment. His book The Grizzly in the Driveway earned a 2021 Society of Environmental Journalists Rachel Carson Award. In Montana, Chaney has written, photographed, edited and managed for the Hungry Horse News, Bozeman Daily Chronicle, Missoulian and Montana Free Press. He studied political science at Macalester College and has won numerous awards for his writing and photography, including fellowships at the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University and the National Evolutionary Science Center at Duke University.
